Zip Code Meaning – The Postal Service has sought advice from the Postal Regulatory Authority on relaxing standards for first-class mail and periodical services. Most mail now expected to be delivered within 2 days will be moved to the 3-day standard, and many 3-day mail will be moved to the 4 or 5-day standard. The main reason for the changes is that it takes a day or two for more mail to be sent by ground rather than by air, and to help the Postal Service achieve higher and more predictable time efficiency scores. (A dashboard with more details, documentation and diagrams can be found here.)
This is not the first time the Postal Service has sought advice on relaxing service standards. In 1989, the Postal Service proposed reclassifying some locations from overnight service to 2-day service and others from 2-day service to 3-day service. Market research shows that customers prefer “consistency” over “speed”. The Postal Service said the slower standard would reduce reliance on air transport, which suffers from “random failures.”
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In its advisory opinion, the Postal Service Commission found that “the postal service market study on which this proposal is based fails to accurately measure customer preferences.” Also, “the service does not provide an estimate of its own cost. savings or cost impact to customers.”
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In December 2011, the Postal Service again proposed relaxing service standards, this time to consolidate more than 200 mail processing plants. The PRC advisory was skeptical of USPS’s cost savings estimates and recommended “alternatives that would maintain service levels.” Regardless, the Postal Service continues with the plan.
In July 2012, it implemented the first phase of the program, eliminating overnight delivery of about 20% of mail with a “temporary” quality of service and adding a day to some 2-day mail. In January 2015, the “final” standard went into effect, and overnight delivery of all one-piece mail was discontinued. Together, these two phases add a day to the delivery time of one-third (perhaps half) of first-class mail.
Given the steady decline in first-class mail since 2006, one would think that sending mail on time would become easier. But in reality, the average time to deliver mail is gradually increasing, while the volume is gradually decreasing.
In the early 1990s the average delivery time for first class mail was about 1.6 days. Due to changes in standards in 2011 and 2015, it increased to 2.5 days. According to the latest plans, the average delivery time will increase by 18% to almost 3 days.
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It may be noted that these delivery time figures differ slightly from those reported for the advisory opinion by USPS witness Thomas Thress. Charts in his testimony show that the current average time for a piece of mail is 2.5 days and 2.4 days. First Class takes a total of 2.43 days; An 18% increase averaged 2.87 days. The numbers in the table above are derived from the table below, which shows the percentage of mail volume that meets various criteria. Sources for this chart are Advisory Opinion N89-1 (page 1); 2014 Fact Sheet; Federal Register Notice dated September 21, 2011; and the USPS Delivering for America 10-Year Plan.
With each change in service standards, the goal is to reduce costs and increase “reliability” and “predictability” of delivery times. But estimates of the savings have been disputed because it’s unclear to what extent the lowering of standards drove away business and accelerated the electronic transition. Operational changes also generally do not succeed in reducing costs, at least not in the desired way. The question of speed and reliability is tricky because it depends on how you ask questions of your mailers, and not all of them want the same thing.
But it is clear that the plans currently being reviewed by the committee represent another phase in the continued erosion of service standards and delivery times.
Requests for advisory comments, USPS witness testimony, and several bibliographic references explain the plan in considerable detail, but the materials do not provide a clear picture of what the changes will look like geographically. Missing are some maps.
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The Postal Service publishes maps showing areas subject to various service standards. They are updated regularly and can be found here on postPro.
For example, here is a map of service standards for first class mail from SCF 631 in St. Louis, Missouri. (SCF is a segment center facility or processing and distribution center—P&DC—serving a geographic area defined by one or more 3-digit ZIP code prefixes.) Orange areas represent areas below the 2-day standard, yellow areas below. 3 day standard. As you can see, the entire continental United States offers 2 or 3-day service, while parts of Hawaii, Guam, and Alaska have 4- and 5-day service.
The Postal Service will eventually issue new maps like this one if the proposed service standards go into effect. At the same time, some preliminary drawings may be made based on the materials submitted for consultation.
A spreadsheet with current and proposed service standards for each 3-digit ZIP code pair (USPS-LR-N2021-1/3) is included in the summary. So, for example, the pair 631-125 represents mail from St. Louis (SCF 631) to the Mid-Hudson area north of New York City (SCF 125). There are approximately 900 3-digit ZIP code prefixes, each paired with other 3-digit ZIP codes, so the spreadsheet displays more than 810,000 pairs of data.
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Using this dataset, it is possible to create quality-of-service graphs comparable to those in PostPro. Here are some examples created with the help of the great mapping tool you can find at randymajors.org.
The graph below uses the same color coding as the PostPro graph: orange indicates 2-day service quality; yellow color 3-day; sky blue 4-day; Blue 5-day. You can click on the map below to view a larger version, or click “Interactive Version” to go to Google Maps, where you can search for any location (or click anywhere on the map) to find location names and associated service standards (upper left corner).
Here are some maps of St. Louis SCF 631 by zip code pairs. The first is another version of the PostPro map showing current service standards; The second shows the service quality areas that appear in the plan.
For mail from St. Louis SCF, the proposed standard change would be the 2-day zone becomes shorter (below), the current 3-day zone (rest of the country) becomes 3-day or 4-day, or for the West Coast, 5 days. Overall, 41% of currency pairs will be downgraded, of which around 3% will be down for 5 days.
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These service standards are defined primarily in terms of travel time and distance. A 2-day standard applies when mail requires only one processing center (post office to P&TC to post office, or pre-sorted and delivered directly to P&TC). Under the proposal, the 2-day standard would also apply if mail is sent from one processing center to another within a three-hour trip (about 140 miles or less).
The 3-day standard applies when the travel time between the origin and destination facility is 3 to 20 hours (140 – 930 miles). This explains why St. Louis is at the center of the 900 mile radius yellow circle. Additionally, the 4-day standard applies when driving time is 20 to 41 hours (930 to 1907 miles), and 5 days for driving time over 41 hours (1900 miles).
A little west of St. Louis, there is an interesting aspect to mail from Salina, Kansas, the SCF area of Lebanon, Kansas (669), the geographic center of the country.
As you can see, the 2-day area will be shortened, the Midwest will be at 3 days, and the eastern and western parts of the country will be shortened by 4 days. But
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Some parts of the country will adhere to the 5-day standard because nowhere in the continental United States is more than 1,900 miles from Salina.
Based on the maps of SCF 631 and 669, one would think that most of the country would be on a 3 or 4 day service standard, but that is not the case. Consider these drawings of SCF 125 (Mid-Hudson, NY), SCF 900 (Los Angeles, CA), and SCF 981 (Seattle, WA).
As these maps show, most parts of the country may require a 4- or 5-day quality of service depending on origin. For Mid-Hudson’s mail, 67% of ZIP code pairs will be downgraded;
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