Gas Car Ban – An expert welcomes an aggressive move towards electric vehicles, but sees a “big mistake” that policy makers need to avoid and a surefire way to piss off drivers.
Last month, California regulators passed rules banning the sale of new gasoline-powered cars before 2035, a move hailed as a major victory in the fight against climate change. The Gazette spoke with Henry Lee, director of the environment and natural resources program at Harvard Kennedy School and an expert on electric vehicles, about the decision. Lee said California’s move isn’t without its challenges, but that the shift in the nation’s largest auto market has the potential to impact much of the country. The interview has been edited for clarity and length.
Gas Car Ban
LEE: The ultimate goal is to decarbonise the transportation sector. That means passenger vehicles, freight vehicles; that means ships, planes. The California rule is certainly a positive step, but what is interesting is that more and more consumers are demanding electric cars. Request the remote offer now.
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NEWSPAPER: And that’s with new vehicles hitting the market that you might not consider electric, like Ford’s F150 Lightning, with several hundred thousand pre-orders.
LEE: An electric vehicle performs better than a gasoline vehicle, so it’s not a hard sell. Concerns have always been, first and foremost, range. The trip I’m on in July is 500 miles and I’m afraid I’ll burn out halfway through. Second: “Where will I recharge my car?” There’s a lot of activity to address those two concerns, so I think we’re making good progress.
California took a big risk [in the 1990s] when it pushed for a certain percentage of cars sold in the state to be zero-emission vehicles. Many people have said, “California will never get there; his policy is simply ambitious”. But they have organized a series of interactions between government, automakers, academics and other stakeholders to work on the technology. And they kept pushing and pushing.
LEE: I would think so. There is some pushback that the shift to electric vehicles is going too fast – perhaps we should look into other technologies such as fuel cells or increased use of biofuels. But not all of these options get you to net zero, and we need to get to net zero faster than many people expect.
California May Become The First State Ban New Gas Car Sales
LEE: Scale is really important. If no one you know has an electric car, think about things like range and lack of charging stations and you may be less likely to buy one. But if your neighbor on the left has an electric car and the neighbor on the right has an electric car and loves them, you have every right to look at one when you’re thinking about buying a new car. Then other people follow suit and take an interest in electric vehicle snowballs.
Remember that we are talking about new cars sold in 2035. Cars last about 15 years, so it will be until 2050 before we get rid of most petrol cars.
“Drivers will be willing to wait 10 to 15 minutes to recharge their cars so they can drive another 200 miles. But if they have to wait much longer, they won’t be happy.”
NEWSPAPER: More cars on the road, therefore more charging stations. But who builds them? Is it a private industry or will it need to be supported by the government?
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LEE: There are three options. One is the private party. The second is that the government supports a private party to do it. The third is that the government does. I think the third would be a big mistake. Of the other two, I usually choose the former – private party – because that’s how the system tends to work best. But if we have to switch to electric cars in a short time, the latter will be the better choice. There is $6 billion for infrastructure charging in the infrastructure bill and I hope the government uses the money to encourage the private sector to set up and operate fast charging stations and encourage homeowners to install the ability to charge their own car in your garage.
LEE: You’ll need fast charging on interstates and highways. Drivers will be willing to wait 10 to 15 minutes to recharge their cars so they can go another 200 miles. But if they have to wait much longer, they won’t be happy. Recharge economy is based on usage. If I own a fast-charging station, I have to use my chargers at least 20 percent of the time if I want to break even. It’s a bit of a chicken and egg problem. This is where the government can come in and say, “Look, we’re going to protect your bottom line for the first four years and then you’re on your own.” I think that would be an effective policy, because it would allow usage rates to grow so the station could make a profit.
I don’t think power will be a big deal, but distribution will be. Utilities will need to install smart transformers in many neighborhoods. If 60% of the cars in a neighborhood are electric and they all go home at 7am and plug in, the transformers can’t handle the increased demand. You need a smart transformer that can synchronize supply and demand and recharge three wagons between 7pm and 10pm, then three more between 10am and 1am, three more between 1am and the fourth and the last set between the fourth and the 1st. 7:00 am
LEE: The technology we really need to accelerate is the least expensive and most efficient battery technology. If a vehicle can get the same amount of energy from a smaller battery as a larger one, it will save weight and space while improving the vehicle’s range. Battery production also emits a lot of carbon, so we should work to reduce those emissions. Thirdly, batteries use a lot of nickel, cobalt and lithium, very dirty minerals to mine, especially the first two, and extremely dirty to process. There will be pressure to develop batteries that use less nickel – or no nickel – or that don’t use cobalt. There may be pressure to recycle lithium instead of opening new mines. Improving battery technology should be a major focus for the public and private sectors.
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In a dramatic move to address climate change, Governor Gavin Newsom announced today that he has directed the Air Resources Board to ban new mainstream car models starting at age 15.
In a dramatic move to address climate change, Governor Gavin Newsom today ordered state officials to ban new gasoline-powered cars within 15 years.
California has been a leader in promoting new, cleaner automotive technologies with its regulations for more than half a century. Today, Newsom upped the ante: On the hood of a red all-electric Ford Mustang Mach-E, he signed a new executive order that aims to phase out new mainstream car models and put more vehicles powered by clean technologies like fuel cells and batteries on California roads.
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The order also addresses fossil fuel pollution before it leaves the outlet, requiring California lawmakers to end new fracking permits by 2024. The Newsom administration’s approval of new oil fracking permits and natural gas this summer has drawn criticism from environmental groups.
Targeting Californians’ beloved cars is a risky political move, especially in the midst of an economic crisis. And the state’s power to impose a ban will depend on the presidential election and will likely be tested in court, according to some legal experts.
Automakers Honda and Ford applauded the announcement. But some automakers, including General Motors and Toyota, are likely to mount an aggressive campaign to oppose the order, saying it is a massive undertaking requiring an overhaul of fuel infrastructure, building codes and consumer demand.
“[Competitive companies] will have to recover economically, not just recover in terms of being able to look their children and grandchildren in the eye.” gov. Gavin Newsom
California Plans To Ban Sales Of New Gas Powered Cars In 15 Years
“Neither mandates nor bans build successful markets,” Alliance for Automotive Innovation president and chief executive officer John Bozzella said in a statement. “What builds successful markets is widespread stakeholder engagement – a combination of efforts from federal, state and local governments, as well as automakers, dealerships, utilities, hydrogen suppliers, electric infrastructure providers, builders and other”.
California is already battling on multiple fronts with the
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